EDITORIALS

Alex's 2008 Oscar Predictions

by Alex Billington
February 21, 2008

With the Oscars arriving this Sunday, it's time to play a little prediction game. As it stands, Ken and I will be dropping off our predictions and a few other sites around the web will be doing the same (check out Ken's here). There's really nothing to win, besides maybe some respect, but that's it. Personally, I'm a bit less competitive than the rest, and that's because I just want my personal favorites to win and that's it. I'm usually rooting for a particular film even if I know it has no chance in hell, but I still think I've got a fairly good grasp on the winners this year. The 80th Annual Academy Awards air this Sunday, February 24th, so check back afterwards to see who got the closest.

The one thing that I do know is that it'll be a great year no matter who wins. Jon Stewart is back and there are so many fantastic films that there were numerous categories where I was truly stuck between two because they were both phenomenal. I'm very curious to see which the Academy favors more: No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood, though I'm leaning towards the Coens. Or maybe Juno will sneak up and steal some big ones, too. Only time will tell - see you on Sunday!

Alex's Oscar predictions are highlighted in red in the nominations list with a brief reasoning for the choice included below each category.

PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

As much as I want There Will Be Blood to win, I think No Country is going to be the bigger winner this year. And to be honest, I'm fine with that, although I'm still partial towards Blood.

DIRECTOR
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman - Juno
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

They're not my own choice, but they already took the DGA's, the BAFTA's, and the WGA's, so why not the Oscars, too? I'd actually prefer Jason Reitman or even Tony Gilroy, who got nominated for his first movie ever, but the Coens are going to win it.

ACTOR
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

This is a shoo-in. There is no doubt in my mind that Day-Lewis will win it and he definitely deserves it. I'm just excited to see his acceptance speech, as I'm expecting that will be great, too.

ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away from Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

I've never actually seen Away from Her, but she's won enough damn awards already that I feel like the Academy members are thinking on the same level. I wish Ellen Page would win, but it's probably not going to happen. And I'll be kicking myself is she does win and I was too stupid to pick her!

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

Casey Affleck deserves it more, but Javier Bardem is as much of a shoo-in as Day-Lewis above. In fact, Hal Holbrook is the one I really want to win, so if he wins I'll be happier, although I'll have guessed wrong. He's like Peter O'Toole - he deserves to win one before he dies.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchet - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

I'm sticking with my gut feeling and going with Amy Ryan who has been the "buzzed about" winner since Gone Baby Gone came out last year. Other than that, I don't have a preference, because my personal choice isn't even one of the five mentioned above.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno - Diablo Cody
Lars and the Real Girl - Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille - Brad Bird
The Savages - Tamara Jenkins

If this doesn't win, not only will I be quite pissed, because she deserves it, but I'll have missed another category! These categories are too damn tough to guess at, they're all deserving of a win, but it comes down to politics not what I want to win and that's the toughest part of choosing!

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement - Christopher Hampton
Away from Her - Sarah Polley
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Ronald Harwood
No Country for Old Men - Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson

As mentioned above, No Country will be the big winner and with the WGA win under their belt already, this is more than likely. Though, There Will Be Blood again could take it if the Academy decides to favor that more.

ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up

Persepolis is a great movie, but Ratatouille deserves it more and will certainly win. I've been wondering what the Academy members could be thinking here, but after mulling over Ratatouille for months, I've realized that movie is truly amazing.

ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

This is where things start to waver because these are all great in their own right and not one seems to have the upper hand on the others. But I'll go with There Will Be Blood, I think it has a good chance because of how detailed and meticulously crafted the sets were in it.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Beaufort - Israel
The Counterfeiters - Austria
Katyn - Poland
Mongol - Kazakhstan
12 - Russia

Where the hell is Persepolis here? Or even Lust, Caution? Goodness, I haven't seen a single one of these so this is a completely blind guess. Plus after the Pan's Labyrinth upset last year, there's no saying what might win this, because even when something deserves it, it usually doesn't win!

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Roger Deakins
Atonement - Seamus McGarvey
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Janusz Kaminski
No Country for Old Men - Roger Deakins
There Will Be Blood - Robert Elswit

I think Diving Bell will win just because of how touching and emotional the cinematography was, although I loved Deakins work in Jesse James, too. Tough choice!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

Sicko won't win, so I'm going with what I've "heard" will take the prize. Haven't seen the others, so not much to go on anyway.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Freeheld - Cynthia Wade and Vanessa Roth
La Corona (The Crown) - Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
Salim Baba - Tim Sternberg and Francisco Bello
Sari's Mother - James Longley

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
I Met the Walrus - Josh Raskin
Madame Tutli-Putli Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven) - Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
My Love (Moya Lyubov) - Alexander Petrov
Peter & the Wolf - Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman

LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
At Night - Christian E. Christiansen and Louise Vesth
Il Supplente (The Substitute) - Andrea Jublin
Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets) - Philippe Pollet-Villard
Tanghi Argentini - Guido Thys and Anja Daelemans
The Tonto Woman - Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown

VISUAL EFFECTS
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Transformers

It could be Pirates, but I think Transformers is going to squash everything when it comes to the technical categories. Plus, ILM's effects in Transformers were actually the best of the year anyway.

COSTUME DESIGN
Across the Universe - Albert Wolsky
Atonement - Jacqueline Durran
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - Alexandra Byrne
La Vie en Rose - Marit Allen
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Colleen Atwood

Another category where I have no clue nor do I really care. But alas, I'm going to go with the probably unpopular choice of Atonement, even though it's probably not going to win - but I'll take my chances!

FILM EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum - Christopher Rouse
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Juliette Welfling
Into the Wild - Jay Cassidy
No Country for Old Men - Roderick Jaynes
There Will Be Blood - Dylan Tichenor

While one might typically choose No Country yet again, I'm thinking having a fake name (which stands for the Coens again) is just a bit too hokey. Thus my vote goes to The Bourne Ultimatum, which I figure the Academy members didn't want to overlook and decided to give it some honor in at least one category.

SOUND MIXING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Transformers

SOUND EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers

Sticking with my gut saying Transformers will sweep the tech categories. By the way, did I say I hate when two different movies when each of these two categories. I feel like whatever wins one should also get the other.

ORIGINAL SCORE
Dario Marianelli - Atonement
Alberto Iglesias - The Kite Runner
James Newton Howard - Michael Clayton
Michael Giacchino - Ratatouille
Marco Beltrami - 3:10 to Yuma

As much as I don't want it to win, it probably will, damnit! My own personal choice goes to Lust, Caution, but alas that didn't even get nominated in any category.

ORIGINAL SONG
"Falling Slowly" - Once, Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
"Happy Working Song" - Enchanted, Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz
"Raise It Up" - August Rush
"So Close" - Enchanted, Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz
"That's How You Know" - Enchanted, Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz

Once deserves this win more than anything and it will be a frustrating upset if it doesn't take it. As much as I absolutely loved Enchanted, not even kidding, I love that song from Once even more, especially considering it was an original song put together by the two individuals from the movie. It's absolutely amazing and it damned well better win!

MAKEUP
La Vie en Rose - Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
Norbit - Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - Ve Neill and Martin Samuel

Awesome work here and this time Pirates deserves the win! Screw Norbit!

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