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Just How Big Could The Dark Knight's Box Office Be?

by Alex Billington
July 15, 2008

Could The Dark Knight have the first $200 million opening weekend in box office history? I almost don't want to keep talking about it, for fear of jinxing it's opening weekend potential, but as the clock ticks down, it looks like expectations continue to rise. Although I highly doubt this is possible, Josh Tyler of Cinema Blend asks that exact question - could The Dark Knight hit $200 million? First off, discussion surrounding The Dark Knight has gotten a bit out of hand on the site and that's partially my fault. I've posed so many radical questions (surrounding the hype) and even critiqued a negative review (from New York Magazine) that readers are getting frustrated at my own opinion. However, I think it's best to just move on past these and focus on the future and the fact that The Dark Knight finally hits theaters this weekend. So with that, let's continue looking at the latest ticket sales stats.

MovieTickets.com announced just yesterday that advance ticket sales for The Dark Knight have surpassed three of their top-10 performing films of all-time at this point in the sales cycle. This means that they've sold three times as many advance tickets as Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and twice as many as Spider-Man 3 and Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (at this point in time - four days in advance). Additionally, they report that over 450 showings are already sold out and that 1300 midnight shows are currently listed for sale. These are some incredibly impressive stats and we're not even taking into consideration Fandango.com's numbers. Apparently the only other two movies in history with this much advance momentum were Star Wars: Episode III and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.

It's those sort of numbers that have made Josh question whether The Dark Knight has the potential to reach upwards of $160 to $200 million in its opening weekend. It's a fiery debate amongst fans about the actual box office potential of the film, but let's just stick to the facts (for the most part). The only way it could achieve that kind of miraculous success is if every seat at every last showing sold out on opening weekend. Unfortunately I don't think that will be the case (who goes at 10AM?), but Josh makes a great point: "If any movie is ever going to come close to doing it, then this little Batman movie's got the juice." Without getting into arguments over the dark nature of the film or its running time, the excitement for this is so extreme that it is one of the few films in history to have the potential to get to that point.

With only three days remaining, The Dark Knight is still building buzz. Every new positive review that pops up gives the film's momentum an extra boost, pushing it further and further towards the $200 million range. And I'm not the only one who has called it one of the best superhero movies ever made. And as long as people continue to say that, this is destined to become one of the most successful superhero movies ever made. The Dark Knight has been poised to shatter records for weeks already, and news like this today is only making that speculation a reality. The film is definitely on its way to have a phenomenal opening weekend - and I'll be watching closely as the bean counters tally up the earnings. While I still can't make any predictions myself, I will say that this will be one hell of an amazing weekend.

Explore tags: Discussion, Editorials, Hype, Movie News

B-Rabs

This movie is my life right now. I have been saying to all my friends for the past year that this movie would shatter box-office records and I've been greeted with skepticism and laughter. I cannot wait for this movie to blow my mind, destroy box-office records and be able to tell everyone I know... I FUCKING TOLD YOU SO!!!
Will S. (Co. Springs)

Incoming haters. I'm already pumped. I could use some more business at the theater. Been rather slow summer compared to last. Blame the economy I guess.
Garrett.king

wow. that certainly would be impressive..would this beat out Titanic? that is my big question..ANY movie that beats out Titanic is a god in my book. cannot wait for The Dark Knight this weekend, should be incredible!
http://handfulofwires.blogspot.com DCompose

Apparently the advanced ticket sales are through the roof. So the opening weekend might be amazing. But the viral campaign turned fans into crazy fans, and didn't do much for the rest of the movie going public. Although it has been covered in other magazines which comment on the sheer scale of the thing, so maybe I'm wrong. I bought advanced tickets. They're having screenings at fucking 3 AM, and those are selling out.
C-Young

Damn... that's Jay-Z bread
Django

Who cares? Just see the movie and contribute! I'll regrettably be out of the country for opening weekend. Might be seeing it in Czech w/ subtitles! Ha! Something tells me it'll still be in theatres by the time I get back. Just everyone go & see it so I can guarantee it WILL be. You heard me right: See the Dark Knight, not because you're dying to or your life depends on it, or you've lost all bearing on reality anticipating its release, but for ME. Thanks.
http://film-book.com/ Film-Book dot Com

This film will definitely make over or near to $100 Million opening weekend. It may break the records set by Spiderman 1 and 2 as well.
http://handfulofwires.blogspot.com DCompose

I bet Jay Z won't see the Dark Knight cause he's wary of his bread.
big r

Ill tell you one thing i feel the dark knight will do it, but IF it does not i know what movie in the future will.... The Avengers without a doubt
Jont

is he buring the box office take in the background of this picture!?
Spider

I say let's just wait for the opening of this flick. We already know it's going to be big. Let's not analyze figures nor dissect the many aspects. Let chips fall where they may. How about a little yard work between now and then to keep some of us under control and pre-occupied???
Thoughtless

Would I be surprised if The Dark Knight beats Spider-man 3's weekend box office record of $151 million? Not really. But $200 million for a weekend is a stretch. Not saying it is impossible, but it is one of those feats that you can't throw out as 'easy to beat'. Sorta like how nobody has come close to reaching Titanic's domestic box office gross of $600 million. Now, if it did make $200 million during the weekend, it would break that record (opening weekend record), as well as the opening day record, highest grossing day record, highest Saturday, and highest Sunday. Those are all obvious. It would also break the highest second weekend record pending any collapse of epic proportions. Then, if it dropped less than 55% in its second weekend, then it would be the movie with the highest chance to surpass Titanic, if it has good legs. However that is all speculation, high expectations and lucky charm wishes. Honestly, I hope this movie does break records, especially the opening weekend record and highest second weekend record. Having Spidey 3, a mediocre movie at best, own the best opening weekend record is a slap to the face.
Django

The Joker is burning money in the picture because he doesn't care how much it makes. He already KNOWS it's gonna be awesome. (Both the money & the movie)
http://www.firstshowing.net Alex Billington

Why do you think I used that image on this article Django? Great comment - goes along with exactly what I was thinking...
Curtis

As much as i think this is going to have a huge opening im not sure it will reach 200 million. It is going to make a hell load of money and going to be a the top for a while i already know that much. Im really looking forward to how this is going to do at the box office and how good the movie really is. Dark Knight here i come!!
Reuben

TDK will make 400 million plus domestically and another 500 million globally, that's my estimate. I haven't seen the film yet but I can already tell you: 1. It's not for kids 2. Nolan editing will hurt this movie, running at 2:30 minutes 3. People love special effects extravaganza movies, this is not one of those films. 4. A dead guy stealing the movie will cast a shadow on the film; a lot of people are gonna feel really depressed when they see this performance. 5. I maybe wrong.
Reuben

...ohh and yes this movie will surpass spider man 151 million record. Here's my geuss: 171 to 181 million.
Jesse

Wow. Thats impressivle ticket sales. Seems everyone knows about the movie now. And to think just a few months ago I was telling people about a new batman movie, and they never even heard it was being made, since they called this movie the dark Knight instead of Batman- insert title here.
Drake

I say TDK will have 214 million in opening weekend. This film will make over 500 million domestically and over 700 million worldwide. OK it is a little over board but I have big hopes for this film.
Knight Rider

Sooo many people are trying to get advanced tickets to Imax and its sold out in my area. I tried to get I-Max tickets for friday and saturday in Irvine and they're all sold out for the night time shows. I'm going at 9:15 a.m. on friday because I dont want to have to wait!!
Staatz

OK, I think I'm done visiting theDarkKnightFanClub.net Time to find a web site that covers other movies...
Great

I was watching the other Batman movie ( Batman Begins ) and did anyone know he is 30 in that movie??? But, yeah- Batman is gonna have a huge box office this weekend. I would not be surprised if it is #1 for a week or two, possibly three. On another note, did anyone notice that Hancock almost beat out Hellboy2 this weekend in the box office. Thats based on Rottentomatoes.com.
http://www.firstshowing.net Alex Billington

Staatz - Once you see this movie this weekend and realize how absolutely frickin' mind blowingly amazing it is, you'll be joining the Dark Knight fan club, too. In the meantime, you're welcome to read about all the non-Dark Knight news on FirstShowing.net as well...
ImaginaryVisionary

I go to a lot of 10am showtimes! And I've even been to a few that sell out (Passion of the Christ, Spiderman 3, and Wall-E) I like going at that time of the day normally because the theater is less crowded in general, but opening weekend movies are normally pretty full (mostly old people, and kids). I have high hopes that this film will upseed 3 movies. Spiderman 3's opening weekend record because that movie sucks. Shrek 2's all time ranking (3rd I think) because I don't care for that movie either, and for God's sake something needs to knock off Titanic because that movie is terrible and I hate that it's ranked number 1 all time.
Brian

I would like to state that I, in fact, go to 10 am movies. They are cheaper and there's not a lot of people there. However, having said that, I WANT to be around all the people for this just to get that buzz. When everybody starts screaming and cheering when it starts, and clapping when it's over. This will be a movie to remember for a lifetime. I am actually going to see it tonight at a screening and can't wait. I estimated it drawing in upwards of $180 Million, but we'll see. I think this movie will be too good to be true. I also think, it will only get bigger and bigger as the weeks progress. This is going to be THE movie of our lifetime. It will rank up there, I believe, with the top films of all time. Superhero movie or not, it will be in the AFI's Top 10, a few years from now. I also, believe this movie will take the Oscars. Best Score, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Cinematography. If it doesn't, it will be a major let down. I know, I know. How can I say this without having seen it, right? Well, I've never had a feeling for a movie, like I do this one. This movie just OOZES, fantastic! Can't wait!
Garrett.king

Piotrish are you forgetting this is Heath Ledgers LAST film?..do you have any idea how many teenage girls would show up just because Heath is in it? TONS! They'll be out in droves. as for the grandmothers?..prolly not...my mother is a grandmother and she'll be seeing it, but I don't think grandmothers really make a lot of the demographic for the box office. so you're right about that. I still think it can easily make 200 million this weekend. I sure hope so.
Shige

"Staatz - Once you see this movie this weekend and realize how absolutely frickin' mind blowingly amazing it is, you'll be joining the Dark Knight fan club, too. In the meantime, you're welcome to read about all the non-Dark Knight news on FirstShowing.net as well…" Alex we all get it, you love the film. But. But. But please realize there is a world of real pople out there. They are not as pumped as you are or any other fanboy for that matter. Granted, I have seen the film, I thought it was great but not the blessing to the heavens as you make it out to be. There were major faults, however I will not say anything before the grand opening so I wont spoil it for the rest of the big fans. Please please stop with the hype and focus on the other films instead. That was the reason I came to this site in first place before it become the TDK fan board. Sometimes I wonder if this site has been bought by some of the major studios in order to promote their upcoming blockbusters. This news post does not differ much from the recent IMDB review by a stuio plant.
adam

Garrett.king - girls didn't really turn up in their droves for any of his other films. nearly all of his movies apart from brokeback mountain bombed.
dt3k

Titanic is the largest grossing film every I know (600 mil), but is ET not still the most impressive grossing film ever? $434 million? IN 1982????? 434 MILLION IN 1982? GET THE **** OUT OF HERE! In 1982 ticket prices were $2.94 cents on average, $4.60 in 1997 when Titanic came out. so 434,000,000 / 2.94 = 147619047.619 multiply that by titanics ticket prices of 4.60 in 1997. 147619047.619 x 4.60 = 679,047,619. Let's go by today's ticket prices for both films for fun, lets just say the average is $8.50 a ticket. 147619047.619 x 8.50 = 1,254,761,904 for ET. 130606127.826 x 8.50 = 1,110,152,086 for Titanic. now I know you can go back even further, but as far as I've read ticket tracking was not completely accurate in 1939 when Gone with the Wind came out.
Daas

I liked firstshowing.net much better when it actually reported news. This article isn't so bad, I guess I'm still annoyed by that "First Negative Review" article. By the way, Dark Knight has more than one bad review, its currently at 88% at Rotten Tomatoes. I mean I'm really excited for this movie too but this is getting ridiculous.
Brian

To all negative posters: Let people be pumped up about this movie, and SHUT UP! This is for people who want to express how they feel when people, like you, won't listen! Stop trying to kill our buzz!!!!!
Art

TDK will absolutely have the greatest opening weekend in film history. I'm predicting 160 mil. 200 mil is out of the question. I also think it will land in the top five of all time highest grossing films. It won't beat Titanic. Titanic is the only movie I have ever seen in the theater twice.
Piotrish

The Dark Knight will do great busines at the box office but it wont get anywhere near titanic as it wont appeal to teenage girls and old grandmothers like that did. Id say 250m dosmetic gross + 300m worldwide.
http://www.myspace.com/kevjohnphotography kevjohn

It's only getting $4.75 out of me. My quiet little white-bread redneck swampland town doesn't have this in IMAX, or any awesome 6am showings that I catch Friday before I go to work, or anything else that might entice me to catch more than one showing of this on opening weekend. As it stands now, I'm heading to the theater for the earliest Saturday morning showing my AMC has available. There's an outside chance that I'll also see it on Sunday, but I'll probably just wait until our IMAX print finally arrives. I'm guessing it'll get here after our Kung Fu Panda print finally does. Garrett.king, this isn't Ledger's last film.
rodan8812

To all the people hating the endless TDK talk just let it go already. I hated all the talk about wall-e and u know what I did to keep from reading, I didnt click on it and then proceed to complain about it being on there. "Its not about the money its about sending a message."
Jonathan

Shige, I find it ironic that you're comparing this site to a TDK fan board, yet from your comment and the comment you left in another of Alex's post about the Dark Knight (http://www.firstshowing.net/2008/07/14/first-negative-dark-knight-review-and-why-its-bullsht/) you let us assume you've been spending your time perusing the IMDB TDK page and its fan board. How about creating your own website Mr. Shige and focusing about the films you're really thrilled about or the ones you hate. If you don't like Alex's posts, then you're just one click away to change and get on reading other sites. Comments like yours really are the ones which don't contribute to an intelligent discussion within a blog. Please, don't go around talking about mature readers.
http://movieguyreviews4u.blogspot.com Ryan

Uhm. No. Mamma Mia! this week guys all the way followed by Space Chimps!
http://movieguyreviews4u.blogspot.com Ryan

hahaha, jk. Alex, you know my opinion on this all along. Well, I will finally eat my words... Tracking really is through the roof and IMAX will strongly benefit this film. With the tickets costing more, ten seperate IMAXs throughout the East Coast are sold out Thursday midnight to Sunday including times at 5am. $200M??? I would like to see that happen but I doubt it, I don't see the family appeal here which propels movies to that point. Still, it is feasable. $150M+? Conceivable. I would love this to beat Spidey-3 which it can. $125M? Definitley. I think the word of mouth and taking people along is really driving these sales through the roof and is definitley going to make this film a winner. The hype is taking everyone in. Little kids will be a hard draw and some girls too (though I know a bunch going to see this). TRUST ME ON THIS ONE! HEATH LEDGER'S DEATH IS NOT A DRAW. BBM is the ONLY film really that wasn't a flop of his. His 2 films after that one both flopped and though Heath was good in BBM I am 100% people didn't go only to just see his performance.
jono

u americans u lucky bastards 1 week earlier than us irish i wish i could add 2 that 200 million that this epic will make not even a fucking imax here
dom

Stop going on and on about this movie - I'll laugh my head off if it aint all u hype it up to be - last batman was ok, nothing that amazing... its just a frikkin comic afterall.
BRBomber

First off, let's get one thing clear, TDK will surpass $200 million this weekend! But for it to knock off Titantic, it will have to have phenomenal legs. Titanic only grossed about $29 million its first weekend, but it become the highest grossing movie of all time because of two things-1. it was an astounding period movie about a highly interesting topic 2. Leo Dicaprio was the star, which meant that every teenage girl saw that movie at least 3 times! Now, if heath can have that kind of pull, then TDK has a chance esp. because it is his last COMPLETED movie kev john. And forget about this not being a kids movie. You think lots of kids went and saw Titanic? No! But if this movie is everything Alex is hyping it to be, and i think i will be, then people will be so enamoured by it's sheer awesomeness, that they'll will have to see it again. And finally i leave you with two predictions 1. TDK movie will be #1 for the next month... 2. Transformers 2 will surpass TDK's box office total next summer...chew on that. Peace out guys, hope this movie is everything you hope it will be! Thanks for all you're hard work Alex. you've gotten me more excited about the TDK than i ever could have expected.
http://www.myspace.com/kevjohnphotography kevjohn

BRBomb, I'd like to chew on whater it is you're chewing on. It'll probably give me a cheaper buzz than spending all night in my favorite bar. Nearly everyone I know went to see Titanic. Although the anticipation is reaching fever pitch for TDK, it only seems to be amongst a select group. I'm pretty sure my mom and sister won't be going to see this multiple times like they did with Titanic.
interl0per

Id imagine even after opening weekend it will continue to kick ass on DVD/Blu-Ray sales too when it comes out. Cant wait! now PLEASE for the love of god, not everyone can see the movie this weekend so lets all keep the damned spoilers to a minimum ok?
Garrett.king

kevjohn (@34)...how do you figure this isn't Ledger's last film?..he's dead. adam (@30) based on how many of my friends [mostly girls] were effected by his death..I.E. inconsolable crying..that's just how I see it. And by the way, not all of the films he made before Brokeback Mountain were bombs. 10 Things I hate about you - $38,178,166 (a romantic high school comedy..a classic in my opinion. did pretty good for the year 2000) The Patriot - $113,330,342 (I can't remember how much he was in that film, so maybe that one's moot) A Knight's Tale - $56,569,702 Lords of Dogtown - $11,273,517 The Brothers Grimm - $37,916,267 All of these were before Brokeback Mountain (which I can't believe I haven't seen yet) Brokeback Mountain - $83,043,761 Casanova - $11,304,403 so those are his biggest triumps. Hell, 2 or three movies before Brokeback Mountain made more than the movie directly after. peace
http://handfulofwires.blogspot.com DCompose

I don't know anyone who went to see Titanic.
http://www.skonmovies.com/ Sean Kelly

I went to a 9AM screening for The Phantom Menace, so people do go to those morning screenings. That said, the screening for The Dark Knight I'm going to is at the more prime time of 7PM.
Chris

According to MovieTickets.com every single IMAX showing of TDK at my theatre (Hartford, CT) is sold out till the 10PM Sunday show.... Get your tickets now!
Michael C.

kevjohn (@34)…how do you figure this isn't Ledger's last film?..he's dead. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus directed by Terry Gilliam Ledger was filming this prior to his death, leaving it incomplete. However, Ledger's role was recast with Johnny Depp, Jude Law and Colin Farrell portraying physically changed transformations of Ledger's character as he travels through dimensions. They are using Ledger's performance in the final film along with these new portrayals. Therefore, that is Ledger's final film.
Garrett.king

ok. last completed film then, like others said. they posted that before i posted mine, but I was busy writing mine when they posted. i caught that too late. thanks for the info, that movie should be interesting.
http://www.lekkerleip.nl Rickmeister

Everybody should stop confronting me that I have to wait till the 24th, instead of the 18th, till the shows start overhere in the netherlands... You guys are friggin lucky! Oh... and after seeing the prologue clip of the Dark Knight I most certainly hope is crosses the 200mil opening mark. I can't stop watching that clip! AMAZING!!
Keith

I think the movie will make over $100 million, and speculating anything past that is just a guessing game. My guess is $120.
LeeMan

i think that everybody will go see this movie on opening day, then slowly deteriorate on sat and sun, so i predict 46M on fri., 41M on sat, and 37M on sun. and if you're counting correctly my guess is about a 120-130M prediction. seems accurate enough, seeing as how space chimps and mamma mia! do open too, whereas spiderman 3 had no competition whatsoever. however, i think this film will deff have better legs than spiderman, resulting in $340M and the summer crown with ease. believe me, im gonna like this movie as much as the next fan, but you souldnt be nlowing it way outta proportion. be reasonable. if im wrong, then so be it
TCox

I was a little disturbed when I saw this page http://www.filmschoolrejects.com/news/how-much-could-the-dark-knight-really-make.php Alex - care to explain?
Lucky

I just saw this movie and, fresh from this cinematic masterpiece, i think it doesn't matter if it breaks any records, this literally is the best movie I have seen in years. It is superb. I won't say anything more, because spoilers suck, can't wait to see what people think after the opening this Friday. On a side note the theater manager couldn't show us the trailer that is playing before the movie, all he said was "it has something to do with someone with a scar" and held his hand up to his forehead. At which time we all booed and then he reminded us we were seeing a movie for free.
sean

LUCKY - 54, what does that mean??? i am serious, what movie has to do with a scar? it sounds really interesting! DUDE I CaN NOt WAIT FOR THIS MOVIE!!!! I FEEL LIKE A CAGED ANIMAL BECAUSE I HAVENT SEEN IT YET!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lucky

I'll give you a hint it begins with an H and ends with ARRY POTTER. Not near as exciting as TDK but I thought it was fun nonetheless.
sean

Sorry i am an absolute idiot! right when i left fs.net it hit me right in the forehead (sort of speak lol) You were helpful, but i figured it out before i looked at this again lol I am a big HP fan, so this is actually really exciting for me, but for now i am in TDK mode!!!! i love this i so can not wait. I am so obsessed with TDK that i bought these weird Joker shirts (that ar Heath Ledger) at this one movie store and then i went online and bought a CITIZENS FOR BATMAN thirst off ebay and am going to wear it to the movies friday!
http://www.firstshowing.net Alex Billington

TCox - What am I explaining? The fact that my article was published at 10:31AM and his at 1:05PM. Neil is my friend, but he took the idea for the article completely from me. Plus these stats were released in a press release today from MovieTickets.com, so we all ran the information that they send out to everyone.
http://roflcakes.tumblr.com/ roflcakes

3:10am showings for IMAX in San Diego--Completely gone.
http://derekspace.blogspot.com/ Derek

I went to an early morning session in Sydney this morning and every last seat was sold. It's going to be huge here.
Garrett.king

i can't believe how huge this is going to be...wow.
Shige

Jonathan If I had time I would. Untill I do I will come here from time to time and it doesn't hurt to suggest to make this site beter some how. I stopped visit IMDB 2 months ago and already then the TDK board was a mess of trolls and fanboys. I cant imagine how it is now if a site like this slowly becomes another fan hangout.
Yum

All I know is that it will definitely make over $100 mil. And I just got done watching Ebert (Michael Phillips) and Roeper's review of it on youtube. You should watch it because they loved it and say that it may be up for some Oscar-noms. Link's below . http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LC254tkWAvA
Brian

BEST MOVIE IN DECADES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! UH-MAY-ZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Heath Ledger is ASTOUNDING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://blog.myspace.com/shero_rauf Shero

How can I be not so serious ?????????? !!!!!!!!!!! People I know that it is not good to just come here and say bad words ...but let me say this ( as Edward Norton said in 25th Hour ) : Fuck Bulgaria ... fuck all the cinemas in it ... and every fucking distributors or producers or what the hell their names are ... I must wait until 25th July ... to see the movie .... What do you think I must do ? become Joker and turn this country up side down ....as I promised before !!!!??? I am thinking about it
TCox

#58 - Alex - in response I will say that I stand corrected. I overlooked the post times. It is kinda lame though that the more sites I look at the more it seems theres a redundancy on articles. Neil may be your friend, but using almost an identical headline, with the same photo is pretty weak. You yourself took the idea from Josh at Cinemablend, as you posted the link in your article. He too used the same photo with a similar headline. You guys need to at least coordinate if you're gonna copy each other. I understand that news is news, and everyone is going to report on it, but make yourself standout a little bit. That's what I've always enjoyed about your site. It's gotta different feel to it. As a reader I hold you to higher standards that Josh (who not long ago wasn't even on the Bat-wagon).
http://movieguyreviews4u.blogspot.com Ryan

Actually, I scratch my remarks. Fantasy Moguls has a very intresting article on why this will NOT be able to reach $200M (atleast not easily). I now predict an outstanding $135M opening but I doubt this will reach the $150M of SM3 for a few reasons. While this film may open up in the most theaters ever (held by Pirates as of now with 4300+) it will NOT reach the NUMBER OF SCREENS as SM3. SM3 opened up on a record-breaking 10000 screens!!! While DARK KNIGHT is rumored to be on a superb and extremley hard to reach 9000, no way it will match the 100000. One reason is that SM3 opened up in early May and many more screens were open. DARK KNIGHT is in the heat of the summer. HB2, Hancock, Wall-E, Wanted, Journey 3D are all performing VERY WELL and two new wide releases (Mamma Mia! which will most likely be on more than one screen, and sadly Space Chimps) will all be competing for screens. Also, THE RUNNING TIME is effecting this too. With the 140+minutes running time at most will equal for the average theater 5 plays a day per screen. Compare this to 6 times a day for Mamma Mia! and most other films and even the 7 times a day for the ultra-trim Hancock. It is possible maybe to reach $200M assuming every single seat at every single time at every single time is filled but that is just unrealistic. This film will open extraordinarily well (#2 of all-time???), but it WILL probably be number one fo the year with excellent legs. I don't see this film crash-and-burn by 50%+ a week. I think it will have terrific legs and come close to if not surpass $400M.
TDK FAN

Rotten tomatoes says 92% guys! yay!
Tyler

Ok so I believe this will not break SM3's record. I also believe that anyone who says it comes close to Titanic is out of control and needs to stop. However, in an effort to understand the opening weekend numbers I am wondering one thing, what notable films were running when SM3 was released? I think that this film is much closer to the "R" edge of PG-13 than SM3 was... And we all know summer box office numbers are driven by families with children, not dudes (like my self) who want to see a violent, disturbing, drama filled portrayal of the comics we read growing up.
http://www.youtube.com/snears Nick Sears

I'm down in fort lauderdale and the IMAX showing for the dark knight is entirely sold out until next monday. Why OH Why did I wait?? It's going to bust through the $200 MILLION mark like the promo poster of batman on the batpod. I want it to, at least. Nothing but huge oscar buzz + Heath's passing. Yeah, major potential.
BatDave

I live in SC at the 20 screen theater where there were 13 sold out midnight showings of Dark Knight and a 2oldout 1230. And the other theater in town had 4 sold out 1200 showings which amounted to around 1000 tickets which according to them is equal to more than AN ENTIRE DAY'S BUSINESS. The stuff about the 9200 screens is inaccurate because the info isnt up to date. The 20 screen here has 7 midnight showings listed today and ended up with 13. So its up the descretion of the theaters and when they see traffic come walk up which is going to happen they have to open up MORE SCREENS to take care of the people. The 20 screen theater here had the 14 showings and another 31 between them and midnight Friday. It is going to kill Spiderman 3. MORE VENUES PROBABLY MORE SCREENS, MORE HYPE, TICKETS COST MORE it all adds up. THERE IS TOO MUCH $$ TO BE MADE and the theaters are in a position to add screens if need be. WHO WOULDNT???