EW's Wacky Summer Box Office Predictions

April 23, 2008

The Dark Knight

When it comes to box office predictions, I usually try to stay out of the game. Not only is it nearly impossible to accurately judge how well a movie will perform (at least I think), I prefer to just enjoy movies and not sit around analyzing the financial side. The latest issue of Entertainment Weekly, the summer movie preview edition, features a page of box office predictions made by the EW staff. This where things get a bit ridiculous - they rank The Dark Knight at #6, below Iron Man (at #5) and Hancock (at #3). Wow, I thought EW was smarter than this? Does anyone really think Hancock will preform that well? Or more importantly, do they really think Iron Man is going to perform better than The Dark Knight? How could they screw up this summer's box office predictions so bad?

Here's a recap of what was published just incase you don't have the latest copy of Entertainment Weekly sitting at arm's length.

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $355.9 million
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $310.8 million
3. Hancock - $280.4 million
4. Wall-E - $280.3 million
5. Iron Man - $262.7 million
6. The Dark Knight - $255.0 million
7. Kung Fu Panda - $224.6 million
8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $176.5 million
9. The Incredible Hulk - $147.2 million
10. Tropic Thunder - $142.6 million

Click for full-size page scan:
Entertainment Weekly Summer Box Office Predictions

Now one would think that EW would be one of the most qualified places to make accurate predictions but these are all way too far off of the map to be considered legitimate. I understand that they're making reasonable predictions based on facts, for example, The Dark Knight: "Batman Begins made $205 mil, and the power of Heath Ledger's last performance, as the Joker, should take this higher." But this is still outrageous - have they missed all of the buzz? I've tried to make this argument all along, but I don't know how anyone can justifiably say "because this other movie made so much money, this one will make the same." There are so many factors that differentiate any two films that a statement like that is a certified load of bullshit.

I'm pretty damn confident that the top three box office earners this summer will be: The Dark Knight, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, and Wall-E. I'm not brave enough to actually rank out a full list of 10 movies like EW (or should I say, stupid enough), but I'm still pretty dang sure those three are going to end up topping the charts. Wall-E and Indiana Jones we all seem to agree upon, but The Dark Knight (and Iron Man for that matter) is the odd one out this time. How did EW completely miss that The Dark Knight has the most buzz out of any other movie this upcoming summer?

As much as I'm personally looking forward to Iron Man, it doesn't have nearly as much momentum as The Dark Knight. In fact, depending on how well Indiana Jones does, I have a good feeling that The Dark Knight could take the #1 spot in the end. I watched every presentation at the New York Comic Con last weekend and the one that had the loudest roar - The Dark Knight. A guy from DC came up on stage and made a quick announcement and at the mention of "Christopher Nolan" there was a tremendous cheer, louder than anything I'd ever heard, that lasted for a good 30 seconds. The new trailer played and the cheering at the end was much louder than any other panel or any other footage that day. Is that kind of enthusiasm not enough to prove that The Dark Knight is going to take the cake?

I'm very anxious to see how Iron Man performs next weekend - I think it'll be our first glimpse at how things will go this summer. I'm hoping for the best, but I'm nervous it might not play as well as everyone is expecting. As excited as we all are for this summer to kick off, a few things are certain: Iron Man is not going to perform better than The Dark Knight and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is guaranteed top be one of the top three earners. Think I'm wrong? Prove it!

Find more posts: Discuss, Editorial, Hype



'Is that kind of enthusiasm not enough to prove that The Dark Knight is going to take the cake?' Not really. A lot of Batman fans cheering for what they love at a Comic Con is expected. Go and stand in a crowded street and shout out the name Christopher Nolan, there will probably be one or two cheers...if that. All of this viral stuff is mainly internet related. Only the fans and online community follow that stuff, who only make up a small % of who will see the movie overall. I can't wait for The Dark Knight and I expect it do do great at the box office, more so than Batman Begins. However, more people will see it because of Heath Ledger than because of viral websites and comic conventions.

Liam on Apr 23, 2008


Right, Liam, sorry, I forgot to include all of my considerations. There is a lot more going for The Dark Knight than just the virals. I only mention the Comic Con story because it was quick and relatable to readers of this site at the moment. However, I do think there is a lot more going for it beyond all of that. "Go and stand in a crowded street and shout out the name Christopher Nolan, there will probably be one or two cheersโ€ฆif that." That actually proves my point. The fact alone that there are THAT many Nolan fans should tell you that there is a definite interest. He's heralded as a brilliant filmmaker by a lot of people - that's just one of the many factors going into the buzz for The Dark Knight and why I think it's going to be so successful.. Actually came across something interesting. The writer of this piece at EW was questioned as to why TDK was so low at a presentation recently. His answer: "Asked about Batman and whether it was put at #6 because of the lack of branding. But Giles says it has more to do with WB still being unsure of how to market the movie around the death of Heath Ledger. He mentions the lack of marketing materials and I assume he's talking about the mainstream campaign." Interesting thing to note...

Alex Billington on Apr 23, 2008


No way Hancock will hit those numbers. I've heard so little buzz for it. Narnia? I say 270ish million. Hancock? WTF? I expect the Dark Night to make some good money, probably around 300 million.

Sam on Apr 23, 2008


Here's the thing with The Dark Knight... by even saying that it's going to be just one of the top 3 earners this summer, I think you guys are just being conservative. I KNOW that you think it's going to be the top earner of the summer.. and I agreee completely. Here's my list (and I'm not gonna do the whole "Price is Right" thing and give exacts): 1. The Dark Knight: +$400 million 2. Wall-E: +$310 million 3. Indiana Jones: +$300 million 4. Hancock: +$250 million 5. The Chronicles of Narnia: +$220 million 6. Speed Racer: +$210 Million 7. Iron Man: +$200 million 8. Get Smart: +$190 Million 9. Pineapple Express: +$170 million 10. The Mummy: +$150 Million Some of you are really sleeping on "Hancock". Will Smith is HUGE at the box office... and it'll reallly attract a wide variety of audiences. Hell... "Wild Wild West" made almost $50 million on opening weekend.

SMY on Apr 23, 2008


do you know how many people are gonna see the dark knight? many many people because there is so much buzz on heaths performance as the joker. this movie is gonna blow every other movie out of the water. it will break 300 million easy.

ANTHONY on Apr 23, 2008


OK... just saw the newly released Hancock trailer on American Idol and I don't know... it's no Dark Knight or Iron Man, but people are going to be talking about that trailer!

searching4j on Apr 23, 2008


I get EW and actually agree on quite a few things. I am a big B.O. buff too so I like these number games and I think they hit the mark on quite a few of their points. Here is my over/under/dead on/safe bet take. 1. Indiana Jones-Safe Bet-While Indiana Jones is this summer's nostalgia it has quite a large fan base of all ages to join in. $355.9M seems reasonable. While I think it will debut under it has a pretty good chance of surpassing the $400M mark too. This is one film that I can see hitting all demographics. Overall it is a safe prediction tohugh I would target it a bit lower. 2. Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian-Dead on-Narnia has grown as a franchise and I think the first one appeased enough people for them to come back. With adjusted ticket inflation accounted it should round out to be about the same. However, some competition can come from IRON MAN, I can't see parents bringing their small ones to that. INDY will be the main competition but like last summer we learned that two big films can thrive. I would compare this one to SHREK 3. Also they have the dark marketing approach to this one too to bring in more teens. 3. Hancock-Dead on-Believe it or not Will Smith is truly a MOVIE STAR! I am Legend with any other lead I can guarantee you it wouldn't have done as well and he has never had a flop to his name yet (ok, Wild Wild West) in the blockbuster drama. Horror, Drama, Action, Romantic Comedy and each film is a big hit. Also the cushy 4th OF JULY spot will give it the extra boost to reach this high. Also this time usually lets more than one film thrive witht he increased attendance so the second weekend of Wall-E and Wanted shouldn't cause too much interference. Next week is HB2 which shouldn't be too much trouble and Meet Dave so...yeah. If not for the 4th of JULY release I would say it would be less. 4. Wall-E-Over-I love Pixar but their movie trailers don't look appealing to me. Hwoever I always see the films and end up loving them so I learned to ignore their trailers. Don't know why I don't like their trailers but anyway :), I see this doing Ratatouille numbers. I feel that it again is a harder sell. There is enough of a distance between this and KUNG FU PANDA but Panda has the advantage (like Iron Man) of being first. Also the week before you have half the girl audience flocking to the AMERICAN doll movie and I feel that GET SMART can provide some competition. However, $280M is achievable. I wouldn't expect it too go much higer though. I would peg it down at around $230M. 5. Iron Man-Safe Bet-Being the first film out of the gate is a BIG advantage and I really don't see Speed Racer doing terrific B.O. numbers to be too much of a threat. The cinemas are EMPTY now and as soon as this comes out people will jump on it. Being a second-tier, or even third-tier hero the number could be lower or it can be very well higher with the positive buzz and critical consensus as of now. I say this is a safe bet. I can't see this going much lower than $250M or higher than $300M though so actually I would say dead on :-)! 6. The Dark Knight-Under-Anyone that knows me knows that I am a HUGE HUGE HUGE Batman fan. And as sad as this soudns I believe that this is pretty close. I can see a $300M final but not much higher. The Ledger last COMPLETED (he still has the GIlroy film (don't know how to spell the name, Dr. P :))!) performance and the franchise definitley grew from the last one. Also the more recognizable villan of The Joker compared to the Scarecrow is a plus. So I saw under but possibly not by much. However, $255M is a pretty safe bet. 7. KUNG FU PANDA-Over-Indiana Jones will have legs and Dreamworks are known to have big numbers but I think this is too high of a peg. On average they are around $150M. I see this doing similar to Madagascar with around $195M. The all-star cast is a plus though to make it crack the $200M barrier but after Wall-E hits it will go down fast. Though it may catch some over-flow when Wall-E's sold-out. 8. THE MUMMY 3- WILD CARD- This film is truly an enigma to me. I LOVE the Mummy series and can't wait to go but the signs are bad with Bello instead of Weisz and half of the cast gone. ALSO THE VERY NEXT WEEK Fraser has ANOTHER! MOVIE COMING OUT that Alex already professed his love for called, Journey 3-D (new title, sounds less cheesy). We haven't seen more than two still frames of the movie yet or a POSTER! The next Universal films are HULK and WANTED so if the trialer is attached to those, that is only TWO MONTHS before it comes out! This could do well but Universal seems to be burying it alive with its August realse date too (though their Bourne flick last year faired well). As of now, WILDCARD! 9. The Incredible Hulk-Over-Did America have enough time to wash out that sour taste from Hulk 1????? I don't think so. I think this will struggle to reach $100M and fi it does it won't reach into that high. I could be wrong but I think this will be a dissapointer. 10. Tropic Thunder-Dead On-I think this looks hilarious but will the R-rating hilter its grosses? Well, yes. If it was PG-13 I would target this in the $200M but it depends if adults want to see this to buy tickets for their kids. Kids will for SURE sneak into this one so it will lose some profits if their parents won't go along and buy tickets. As of now this looks pretty safe and Dead on. DON'T LEAVE OUT: -X-Files 2-The first one did well and if Hulk and Thunder fail this has a chance of getting into the top 10. -What Happens in Vegas...-I have faith in this one. I doubt it will get into the top 10 but it does have an outside chance. -Get Smart-This has a wide appeal and looks excellent. Could very well be in the top 5! -Wanted-Well this be the summer's 300 or the new Matrix???? It has the potential but until some reviews come out the fate is up in the way. -Sex and the City: The Movie-Don't underestimate the power that is women ๐Ÿ™‚ -Mama Mia!-I doubt it but it can crack the $100M mark. -The Love Guru-Sadly but truly I really do think America is that dumb....

Ryan on Apr 23, 2008


This is one of the reasons why I cancelled my EW subscription 3 years ago. My Top 3: 1.) Indiana Jones 2.) The Dark Knight and 3)Iron Man

Spider on Apr 23, 2008


To SMY....no way in hell "The Dark Knight" is going to make 400 million. Maybe worldwide, but not domestic. And Anthony, what "buzz" on Heath's performance? No one has seen this movie yet. The buzz is because of his death and how to market to film. Sure, he'll be great. As will the movie. But if this movie makes 275 million it'll be lucky. The first only made 205 million. "Indiana Jones" will make at least 300 million. But will most likely be the number #1 film of the summer. As it should. "Hancock" will be a hit, but I think EW's numbers are a bit lofty.

Rob on Apr 23, 2008


wow...that was long winded. Alex, can you do something to prevent posts like #7's for us in the future? Please?

carg0 on Apr 23, 2008


What's wrong with #7? Ryan is a very good friend of the site and long-time contributor. If you don't want to read it then just skip over it but I really appreciate his input.

Alex Billington on Apr 23, 2008


carg0......"us"? You don't speak for everyone. I like posts like Ryan's. Someone who takes their time responding. Who is impartial and expressive. Keep it up Ryan!

Rob on Apr 23, 2008


Rob, don't think for a second that Warner is gonna be quiet on the marketing front with this film. "Batman Begins" made $205 Million because people thought that it was going to be like every other Batman. Personally, that film was 10X better than I expected. There's been an ongoing pattern in Hollywood over the last decade. Sequels do REALLLLY well. Add that to an increased marketing campaign, an already huge fan-base, the increased fanbase because the strongest viral marketing campaign ever, the success and awesomeness of the first film, and the buzz over Heath Ledger's last role..... you have yourself the biggest earner at the Box Office this summer! Worldwide? Over $800 million easy.

SMY on Apr 23, 2008


Let me start out by saying that I think the Dark knight deserves to make more money than any other film this summer, I check every day for any peice of news that I can find about the film. Christopher Nolan and Co. are the tops. Any true movie fan knows this, and for that reason they know to be most excited about this movie. Movies make money by playing to the masses, the dark knight plays to the mass of intelligent viewers and those that like dark films. There has been a lot of talk about the over saturation of the market by Iron Man, but people that are not like me don't see every little thing that that is realeased to promote a film. That's how you reach the masses, which the dark knight will probably do once WB is done promoting speed racer. This brings me to the reason the dark knight will probably fall around 5 or 6 on the list. It does not play to the kids. Parents taking there kids to the movies is how the huge numbers occur. Indy 4, Iron man, and speed racer will do this, so will prince caspian, wall e, and Hancock. In that order, the dark knight will be huge for a film as dark as it is, like 300 and will then dominate the dvd market like batman begins did. EW should be embarrassed by the fact that they forgot that speed racer has kids going crazy already, even more than Iron Man. And will smith had hitch and pursuit break 150 million, I am legend broke 250, now he is merging comedy and superhero, they wont need to market it to hard people love him and love to talk about him, a big ramp up in june will do. The Dark Knight will be the best film by far, and heath ledger will hopefully get recognized come awards time even though it is a summer film.

Tyler on Apr 23, 2008


The Dark Knight #6? Gotta be crazy. And How does Hancock beat The Dark Knight? Haha.. Call me crazy *rolls eyes*

Joel on Apr 23, 2008


SMY, not true. Not all sequels make more than the original. Quite the opposite. Look, I get it, you clearly liked "Batman Begins" and want the sequel to do better. But 800 million worldwide!? Not a chance. Never. "Begins" only made 371 million worldwide. And as Tyler pointed out, the film is way too dark to play to family and kids. It will probably be a critical success, but it won't be the box-office hit of the summer or the year.

Rob on Apr 23, 2008


uh-oh, pissed off the kid who runs the site... *deletes bookmark* oh, and Rob's right. you'll sooner see G.I.Joe take home Oscars for Best Movie, Screenplay, Actors, Cinematography, Music and Costume Design before Dark Knight hits $800 million.

carg0 on Apr 23, 2008


I'm tellin you... you guys are sleeping on it. It'll be the biggest film of the year.

SMY on Apr 23, 2008


1 dark knight 2 speed racer 3 wall E 4 iron man 5 Prince Caspian 6 hell Boy 2 7 Wanted 8 The incredible hulk 9 Indiana Jones 10 Mummy 3 Reason for dark Knight as no.1 simple its something kids want to see but it has that dark edge that also gets adults into the theatre. well iron man its no.3 because its a character that not much people knows about but the trailers look really good and has a good campaign behind it and thats what would make it big. Wanted is actually not in the predictions up there but to me this film looks fuckin insane(in a good way),hell you get smokin hot angelina jolie, a visionary director, a great cast and over the top action sequences. better yet it would be rated R so no screaming kids would be there.The inredible hulk was difficult to predict since the second trailer is due on the opening of iron man. Any who the reason i rate it no.8 because its up to the viewers to agree or disagree if the cgi hulk looks good. personally it looks great but more importantly passable. I love hulk so does everyone, a dude turns big and smashes everything what more do you want. Everyone would be pissed since i said indiana jones is no.8. honestly fans of the original would want to see it but havin harrison ford with alot of background cgi won't do for everyone, the action scenes wouldnt be that exciting and although you got steven speilberg to direct, this film wouldnt cut it for anyone. Well no.10 hey its rob cohen directing, the same guy that brought you fast and furious, xxx, hell should be fun but we need a trailer soon. The films i didnt review like caspian and wall E we should already know, its walt fuckin disney, they always make money and caspian looks pretty good. The great speed racer is well for everyone, the past, the present, even if you weren't a fan like me you know deep down the film looks wicked. some say it looks too cartoonish hell thats the point and the first trailer sucked but did u see the others, i hope so then you would understand what im saying. finally hell boy 2. show looks awesome, giant monsters, selma blair on fire and big frickin guns, im down with that.

darrin on Apr 23, 2008


Sure SMY. Whatever you say. Check back with us in December. I'll bring the crow.

Rob on Apr 23, 2008


sorry indiana jones no.9

darrin on Apr 23, 2008


1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $355.9 million - a full 100.9 mill more than dark knight? your joking right? 2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $310.8 million - i can see it pulling out a solid #6, but #2? no way in hell 3. Hancock - $280.4 million - theres no place for this in a top 50 of '08, im telling you now 4. Wall-E - $280.3 million - no complaints here 5. Iron Man - $262.7 million - a close 3rd to dark knight and indy 4 would be an informed guess 6. The Dark Knight - $255.0 million - should be very close with indy 4, probably 400 mil worldwide 7. Kung Fu Panda - $224.6 million - dont know much about it, doesnt look interesting 8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $176.5 million - theres almost nothing about it floating about the interenet except maybe 3 pictures and word that they changed frasers wife to some other chick, not enough publicity to break 130 mil 9. The Incredible Hulk - $147.2 million - i think itll make more money but still bottom of top 10 10. Tropic Thunder - $142.6 million - should be good enough to for top 10 whats missing: pineapple express(should be #5 right after Wall E) and either get smart, hellboy 2 or x files

harrison on Apr 23, 2008


I seriously am flabbergasted on how anyone cannot put TDK at LEAST in the top 3. Obviously there is a lot of nostalgia with Indiana Jones. It has Spielberg, Lucas and Harrison Ford...It'll do very well. Pixar is always gold, so Wall-E will crush everything it touches for a couple of weeks. BUT WAKE UP PEOPLE!!! To elaborate on an earlier point, Batman Begins made $205 million domestically. That is really impressive because people we fed up and completely turned off by anything batman thanks to Schumacher and Clooney. Batman Begins has had two years on DVD to add on to the box-office fan base, from people who were skeptical to see it in theaters due to past Batman film debacles (Forever and Batman and Robin). Because of this, Batman has gained back its credibility, prestige and coolness. Nolan has created open-mindedness and the willingness of moviegoers to see his films in theaters. Christian Bale is one of the hottest actors in Hollywood right now. Academy award nominees and winners in the cast include: Michael Caine, Gary Oldman, Heath Ledger, Gyllenhaal and Morgan Freeman. Automatic credibility among adult movie-goers. And for the idiots who site that it is too "adult" and "dark" for parents not to bring their kids to...that is so fucking irrelevant. I believe The Matrix Reloaded was rated R and is super violent, but it still made $281 million at the box-office. Is Lord of the Rings Two Towers and Return of the King for Kids? No! It is violent, DARK, with epic battle scenes, with monsters and orks. Is that for Kids? NO! But it still managed to make over $350 million each. Every one knows the Joker. He is a favorite villain for millions of people around the world because of the comic books, Burton's batman and the animated series. That itself bumps up its box-office gross by $100 million. It is still 3 months away...Warners hasn't even begun to MASS market the movie to the world, even though it has thousands of people jumping through hoops already in its revolutionary viral campaign. Lastly...HEATH FUCKING LEDGER!!!!...So many people know this is his last COMPLETED FILM...That alone is going to draw, Ledger fans (non-bat fans) to the theaters. On top of that, worldwide bat-fans and even non-bat fans, but who are action fans, will want to see his performance that already seems brilliant and revolutionary. If tracking the buzz and anticipation surrounding summer blockbusters to make in-the-ball-park, accurate box-office predictions, then this person who made these predictions from Entertainment Weekly should LOSE THEIR FUCKING JOB! peace

B-Rabs on Apr 23, 2008


Sorry, I forgot to make my prediction...The Dark Knight will be the top grossing film of the year with $380 million. peace...again.

B-Rabs on Apr 23, 2008


I like to point out to Ryan that Ledger was working with Terry Gilliam on his last film. Not Tony Gilroy.

Mike G. on Apr 23, 2008


TDK No. 6? Bullshit. This isn't funny, really...shut this thread down...

m4st4 on Apr 24, 2008


I've heard some good points about The Dark Knight recently that, although they do believe it might be #1, don't think it'll exactly break $300 million. It'll be tough to really break the bounds from the last film but I think it has a lot going for it. I'm confident in it, but I think there are arguments that say it'll perform well, just not >$300 million well... That's a tough feat no? Am I wrong?

Alex Billington on Apr 24, 2008


B-Rabs, who are you calling an idiot? "The Matrix" and the "Lord of the Rings" movies had an audience made up of teenagers and older. NOT children. "Batman" started off as a comic that kids read. It was turned into a tongue in cheek television series. Then a cartoon. Again, all aimed towards kids. It wasn't until Tim Burton took the helm that it turned darker. But kids still went. Nolan's vision is NOT for kids. And parents know this. Like "The Matrix" and "Rings", it's for teenagers and older. And yes, everyone knows how much money those made. But I will go back to my original statement. The original only made 205 million. And regardless of how "hot" the DVD rentals and sales have been, predicting it will making nearly twice that much is insane.

Rob on Apr 24, 2008


1st of EW is S-T-U-P-I-D. u can tell em i said it. 2nd of all, who are they to predict what a movie is gonna make... they aint nobody. and why is errbody hating on will smith, dude makes a killing every summer. but the summer is almost here so we'll see if there's in accuracy in there list. if not, they should jump off the nearest mountain.

theTruth on Apr 24, 2008


Just hope IM, TDK, and TIH all do well enough so there can be more sequals. I don't care which one does better than the other, who cares they all will get richer while we all get 9 dollars broker or 11 if you go to imax or $20 for us guys who's gonna take a bitch. The price of movie tickets are ridiculous.

Don P on Apr 24, 2008


From what I've heard, Speed Racer is going to be the talk of the town after its released, because it's offering the most unique spectacle with a very wide appeal. How it's not even on that list (and yet The Mummy 3 is there?! ๐Ÿ™ ) is beyond me.

Manfred Powell on Apr 24, 2008


I think EW is wrong about Batman, but is anyone else worried about the Hulk? I think it is going to be a decent movie, maybe even a good one, but there is such a lack of promotion on this movie. It is definitely going to be better than the original, but if the studio doesn't start promoting it how will people know that it's not a sequel to the Ang Lee version. That's one of the problems with these comic book (hero) movies that we all love, people say "oh they're making another one of those" without realising it's a reboot. Even Jack Nicholoson was angry cause he thought this Batman had something to do with the Batman he was in.

Drew on Apr 24, 2008


Listen... I can see the reasoning behind EW's perdiction about Iron Man. Since it's the first movie of the summer season, moviegoers hungry for some action will flock to this film. However, it will only last a week and then Speed Racer comes in and blows IM out of the water. But, I think that Dark Knight will definitely make more money than IM, a whole lot more. The #1 prediction of IJ4 is acurate, but Narnia: Prince Caspian?????? The first one didn't do too well and it is way too close to other heavy-hitters in theatres, so EW's pick of #2 is stupid.

Ajax on Apr 24, 2008


It's always fun to predict the outcome of summer movies. I've followed boxofficemojo in the past when they used to predict weekends and a lot of times they were close. There will always be a flops (speed racer? mummy3?) and movies that do way better than expected (sex and city? get smart?). One thing I've learned is that during the summer, it's how much $$ during the weekdays that really contribute to how well the movie will end up doing. As big as a movie's weekend debut will be, it's the weekday attendance that will ultimately put it over the top, good examples would be family movies that don't debut so well but have a long life and do very well during weekdays. Also, a movie's rating (pg, R) do tend to hurt the box office #'s a movie will end up getting unless it's one of those "must watch at all costs" movie and that will cause many parents to make an exception and bring their kids.

pogi on Apr 24, 2008


I also wanted to comment on the whole "buzz" concept. It can truly be misleading towards the box office performance of a movie (ie. snakes on a plane). I know Batman has a strong following and the viral marketing is great, however like someone said earlier, these are usually only followed by the fans who will watch the movie even w/out this.

pogi on Apr 24, 2008


Numbers are boring! GRRRRRRR!

DCompose on Apr 24, 2008


indiana will take will take number 1! not to say dark knight will do bad but i think you guys are giving the dark knight way too much credit! will it possibly be a better movie then indiana jones?!? maybe, but it will NOT bring in more money! You have to look at it from a bigger prospective then just all of us huge movie fans and comic geeks which i myself am one but it seems like im the only one who can see why indiana jones will do better at the box office. The only thing that can even mkae the dark knight come close or possibly beat it is the fact that heath ledger is dead, if he was still alive there would be no competition what so ever!

ha1rball on Apr 24, 2008


Haha. I think that was my longest post ever in my whole time on this site ๐Ÿ™‚

Ryan on Apr 24, 2008


Also, regarding Heath Ledger and people rushing to see "The Dark Knight" because of his untimely death. That may be true on some very small degree. But guys, Ledger was never a huge box-office star. And "The Patriot" aside, this was his first true big Hollywood blockbuster. But it's not a Heath Ledger vehicle. It's a successful franchise that just happens to have him as one of the supporting roles. Up until now, "The Patriot" was his biggest film at 113M. But that was only because it was a "Mel Gibson film" (starring, not directing). The second biggest HL film was "Brokeback Mountain", at 83K. For more of his box-office results, go to http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?id=heathledger.htm

Rob on Apr 24, 2008


The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian................. I think it will do worse then we think.. #3 I think HANCOCK will do good with the new trailer out

SHANE D on Apr 24, 2008


Re: "Narnia". Built in audience. The church. It will do the same or better than the original. But not that much more. Re: Will Smith. He's still white hot at the box-office. As long as it's not another "Wild West", he's safe.

Rob on Apr 24, 2008


Top 5: 1. Indiana Jones 2 Dark Knight 3. Wall-E 4. Ironman 5. Speed Racer

Scorpio on Apr 24, 2008


they're making another Mummy?... i dont know whether to be stoked or mortified

Zach on Apr 24, 2008


I haven't even seen a poster or trailer for "Mummy 3". First, there is now way a film about some "Dragon King" or something can retain the same flavor as the first two films. And without propper buzz, this film is going to tank badly (poor Universal monsters). A big "WTF" to EW for picking this in their top ten.

Ajax on Apr 25, 2008


Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 will be the biggest movie of the Summer!!! yea, right. well i think everyone is right with the fact that the dark knight will be huge and might even overcome indiana jones and prince caspian, but i think many ppl won't admit that heath ledgers suicide is what will catapult this movie to the $300m mark.. and btw why is everybody hatin on the mummy 3, i'm not a fan but ppl say it has no hype. it's april, APRIL!!! the movie comes out in AUGUST, i'm sure the movie (with the addition of Jet li) will gain more attention and do terrific, just like the last one ===anyways let me give you my predictions. disagree if you want, but this is how it will go down!!=== 1- INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF W/E: $335M (THIS IS THE OBVIOUS BIG ONE) 2- DARK KNIGHT: $306M (BELIEVE THE HYPE, EW, BELIEVE IT!) 3- PRINCE CASPIAN: $256M (WILL DO JUST AS GOOD AS THE FIRST 1) 4- SPEED RACER: $215M (THE SUPER UNDERDOG BLOCKBUSTER HIT OF THE SUMMER) 5- WALL-E: $211M (PIXAR SCORES BIG ONCE AGAIN) 6- HANCOCK: $200M (SAY WHAT YOU WILL, BUT WILL SMITH RULES INDEPENDENCE DAY, AGAIN) 7- INCREDIBLE HULK: $178M (I'D SEE THE HAPPENING INSTEAD, BUT W/E IDC) 8- kUNG FU PANDA: $178M (AN ANIMATED COMEDY FOR THE YOUTH IS THE PERFECT SOLUTION) 9- THE MUMMY: $178M (THIS, PINEAPPLE XPRESS AND TROPIC THINDER WILL ALL RULE AUGUST) 10- IRON MAN: $175M (THE MOVIE KICKING OFF THE SUMMER KICKS OFF THE COUNTDOWN)

Lee on Apr 25, 2008


this summer will be the shit! did anybody see the trailer 4 get smart?? that was hellarius!! i really think it will do very good and so will pineapple express and the happening too

SUNNY on Apr 25, 2008


Don't forget to account for Star Wars - The Clone Wars. Yeah, it's animated, but never underestimate the power of Star Wars nerds. ๐Ÿ™‚

Jeff on Apr 27, 2008


Not sure if this was said at all, but one of the main reasons TDK will be lower in numbers is the running time. It is close to 3 hours long (2:40) This limits the amount of showtimes and will take the number down a bit. However, it will be the BEST movie of the summer hands down.

thetuf75 on Apr 27, 2008


With regards to TDK finishing in the top five summer box office, I would just like to say, your dreaming. Number one-The movie is such a dark movie it will not attract women and children. It will just attract fan boys, fans of Batman. If Batman Begins was such a good movie then why did Alvin and the Chipmunks beat it at the box office! Number two-this buzz that you keep talking about, is created by the Batman fans. Again, look to Batman Begins, which was a disapointment at the box office, as was Superman Returns. Number three- And the biggest problem is the Batman fans don't realize just how bad Batman Begins really was so they will not take the necessary measures to ensure that TDK does not follow in it's foot steps. You're not making a movie for Batman fans, you are suppose to make a movie for movie fans. I am not a fan of Batman but you are destroying an iconic character all because of your own inability to accept that he is not as beloved as you would like him to be.

chester on May 5, 2008


Dear Alex B, I believe you wanted proof with regards to Ironman being able to beat Batman at the summer box office. If you will check the current box office numbers and reviews of Ironman I believe that is all the proof that is warranted. Ironman will finish in the top two or three while the overhyped TDK will have its hands full with Kungfu Panda. And my money is on the Panda.

chester on May 12, 2008


it seems to me that i might be the only one looking at this page, so i am probably just talking to my self . but i have some new insight into what i think will win the summer box office. as with indiana jones unless it is a really good movie i just don't see people interested in a harrison ford movie. iconic character are not, superman returns proves, it better be a good movie. as for the dark knight, the batman fans and their hype machine are driving me crazy. i have heard some predict 300 million and even 400 million domesticly. look, tickets cost say 10 dollars, so 20 million people saw batman begins, that means tdk will have to bring in another 10 million people to reach 300 million. go back to batman begins and tell just how that movie could possible inspire people to see the sequel and bring in new fans. batman fans obviously loved the film, but you make a movie to bring in new fans not to please Batman fans. If Batman was so good why is Ironman better at the box office? batman begins was good for the first hour but then turned into a heaping pile of junk. spider-man fans will gladly admit that number 3 was horrible, so as to take the necessary changes to the fourth. batman fans are the only ones who seem to have liked batman begins and seem to shout down anyone who didn't, all the while maintaining it was the best movie ever. i really tried to like it but it really was horrible. With regards to Heath Ledger, it will not effect the box office at all, plain and simple. Good movie - good box office, bad movie - bad box office. TDK is unfornately will be made in the image of Batman Begins and that is a real bad idea. Looking at the trailer when the Joker says, "It's simple, kill the Batman" you just elimanated women, children and families from seeing the film. The trailer doesn't inspire new fans, just the already existing Batman fan base. Along with a running time of over 2 and a half hours , it will not appeal to families. it will i am sure have a big opening but with such dark themes it will not have the legs to sustain itself. again batman fans are their own worst enemy. you are not making a titanic or braveheart movie, you are making a superhero movie . i just saw the trailer for wall e, and that is how you make a trailer. everyone i was with howled. i think wall e could possible win the summer box office because it all the quadrants of the movie spectrum. box office predictions wall e-305 million indy- 275 million tdk- 235 million which for the hype batman fans should be happy but it will be closer to 225 ironman- 260 prince caspian-250

chester on May 13, 2008


Dark knight $325 Iron Man $300 Wall E $288

PHILIP on Jun 29, 2008


Iron Man has already hit $311 (with a final tally of 320-325 possible) and Indy 4 is over $305 with 20 fewer days in release than IM (with a possible final tally over 330 million possible) and I think Wall-E will finish close to $300 and The Dark Knight has the chance to finish in the $300-320 million range, maybe no worse than $280-290...so with everyone saying this would be a down summer we could still have four films finish above 300 million with Hancock, Kung Fu Panda and maybe the new Mummy movie finishing over 200 million

Ron on Jul 6, 2008


To Chester, Batman Begins won over many and I mean MANY people once it hit DVD, cable and PPV, I know plenty of people who don't even go to the movies anymore who are going to see The Dark Knight and are excited to see...which actually suprised me. I do think the subject matter will hurt it, if they were able to make it more kid friendly but still appeal to the base Batman fan base which is much larger than Iron Man could ever hope to have they'd be able to pull in maybe 400 million with the viral marketing and all the normal marketing. I do still think it can make over 300 mill at the box office in north america

Lynn on Jul 6, 2008


LOL! @ the Predictions now. TDK>>>>>>ALL

James on Jul 19, 2008


TDK - 520M final tally!

TDK_Awesome on Aug 4, 2008


Well, TDK 395 m in 17 days..with 48% women audience...here you go...

Mishti on Aug 4, 2008


Hey Rob - who's gonna eat that crow now? $400m domestic in just 18 days - awesome! Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but anyone who genuinely believed TDK would not break $800m worldwide knows nothing about movies.

Philip on Aug 5, 2008


Yeah ! Eat that Chester.. Your so f***kin' stupid to underestimate the power of the caped crusader to attrat and win MOVIE fans not just batman fans as you put it

Guo Yuan on Aug 24, 2008

New comments are no longer allowed on this post.



Subscribe to our feed or daily newsletter:

Follow Alex's main account on Twitter:

For only the latest posts - follow this:

Add our posts to your Feedlyclick here

Get all the news sent on Telegram Telegram